Science Update: QBO Predictability and its northern hemisphere winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

In a new GRL article, A. Scaife and co-authors examine the predictability of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in initialised climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years using coupled ocean-atmosphere models with internally generated QBOs. They demonstrate the predictability of the QBO extending out to more than three years, with correlation scores exceeding 0.7 at a lead-time of 12 months. Predictability could be further improved through better initialisation and more realistic representation of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of the gravity wave parameterisation used. They also show that predictability is lowest in winter and that skilful prediction of the QBO does not guarantee predictability of the extra-tropical winter teleconnection so important for surface winter climate prediction. The full abstract can be found here.