Science Update – GRL paper by Anet and co-authors

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

A new GRL article by J. Anet and co-authors investigates the effects of recently proposed 21st century Dalton-minimum-like decline of solar activity on the climate and ozone layer. Using the IPCC RCP 4.5 scenario and the SOCOL3-MPIOM coupled ocean-atmosphere model, they find that a future grand solar minimum reduces mean global surface warming by 0.2-0.3K and that the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay in the recovery of stratospheric ozone by up to 10 years and longer. The full abstract can be found here.