Abstract submission deadline: 11 March 2016
Registration deadline: 22 April 2016
The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms
Persistent biases in forecast and climate prediction systems hinder our ability to model circulation changes, both in seasonal forecasting and in climate projections.
SPARC Dynvar has established a set of diagnostics (DynVarMIP, endorsed by CMIP6) to enable a mechanistic approach to confront model biases and understand the underlying causes behind circulation changes.
This workshop is an action to launch this effort and reinforce connections between the modeling centers involved in DynVarMIP and the wider research community. As atmospheric reanalyses provide a vital connection between models and the real Earth, we will meet jointly with a subset of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) focused on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and the Stratospheric-Tropospheric Coupling.
Presentations are called for analysis of seasonal prediction, CMIP, and idealized models on:
- The origin and consequences of systematic models biases in the context of atmospheric dynamics; with a focus on: tropical – extratropical connections, storm tracks, polar vortex and sea ice variability.
- The role of atmospheric dynamics in shaping the climate response to anthropogenic forcing (e.g. global warming, ozone depletion).
- How dynamical processes contribute to uncertainty in climate prediction at seasonal and decadal time scales.
The workshop will provide a forum for:
- Discussion on how best analyze the CMIP6 diagnostics that will be available via DynVarMIP, which targets the DECK experiments (AMIP, abrupt4xCO2 and 1pctCO2), the CMIP6 historical and the ScenarioMIP RCP8.5 experiments, as well as selected experiments within VolMIP, AeroChemMIP, and HiResMIP, where there is natural overlap in scientific interest.
- Explore the possibility of coordinated idealized experiments on dynamical processes
Invited Speakers and Discussion Leaders will introduce presentation topics and stir discussion.
DynVar is a working group of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Project.
SPARC is a core project of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).
We thank the Finnish Meteorological Institute for hosting the workshop and anticipate that limited funding will be available to support the attendance of early career scientists.
DynVar Conveners: Ed Gerber, Alexey Karpechko and Elisa Manzini