DynVar – Phase I

The DynVar Activity emerged from the need to advance the understanding of the interactions between atmospheric variability, dynamics and climate change, and in particular of the two-way coupling between the troposphere and the stratosphere. To this end, DynVar promoted the development and use of coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation models, with the atmospheric component extending to above the stratopause.

With the 2010 workshop, the DynVar Activity called for the inclusion of models with a well-resolved dynamical stratosphere in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project – phase 5) and CHFP (Climate-system Historical Forecast Project) projects.

This call resulted in a net increase in the participation of models with tops above the stratopause in inter-comparison projects. In so doing, DynVar enabled the assessments of stratospheric mean climate, variability, and change, as well as of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling, in climate projections and on intra-seasonal time scales.

Subsequently, DynVar led to the establishment of  DynVarMIP, a diagnostic model inter-comparison project endorsed by CMIP6.

Activity Leaders

Elisa Manzini, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany, elisa.manzini[- at -]mpimet.mpg.de

Edwin P. Gerber, New York University, USA, gerber[- at -]cims.nyu.edu

Team Members

Committee Members: Amy Butler, Natalia Calvo, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Marco Giorgetta, Adam Scaife, Tiffany Shaw and Shingo Watanabe

Ex-Officio Members: Paul Kushner, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani and Fabrizio Sassi


Published results

 Journal publications:

Barnes, E.A., N.W. Barnes and L.M. Polvani, 2014: Delayed Southern Hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery, as projected by the CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 27, 852-867.

Butler, A.H., and Coauthors, 2016: The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter? Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 142: 1413–1427. doi:10.1002/qj.2743

Calvo, N., and Coauthors, 2017: Northern Hemisphere stratospheric pathway of different El Nino flavors in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1.

Charlton-Perez, A.J., and Coauthors, 2013: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2494–2505, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50125

Furtado, J.C., J.L. Cohen, A.H. Butler, E.E. Riddle, and A. Kumar, Eurasian snow cover variability and links to winter climate in the CMIP5 models, Climate Dynamics, 45 (9), 2591-2605, 2015.

Gerber, E.P., and Coauthors, 2012: Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93: 845-859.

Gerber, E.P. and E. Manzini, 2016: The Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP) for CMIP6: assessing the stratosphere–troposphere system. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3413-3425.

Gerber, E.P. and S.-W. Son, 2014: Quantifying the Summertime Response of the Austral Jet Stream and Hadley Cell to Stratospheric Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. J. Climate, 27, 5538-5559, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00539.1.

Grise, K.M., and L.M. Polvani, 2014: Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity? A Southern Hemisphere perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 534–540, doi:10.1002/2013GL058466.

Grise, K.M., and L.M. Polvani, 2016: Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 5159–5176, doi:10.1002/2015JD024687.

Hardiman, S.C., N. Butchart, and N. Calvo, 2013: The morphology of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change in CMIP5 simulations. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1002/qj.2258

Hurwitz, M.M., and Coauthors, 2014: Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn. 43, 3367–3376. DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2110-z

Karpechko, A.Yu., and E. Manzini, 2017: Arctic Stratosphere Dynamical Response to Global Warming. Journal of Climate, 30, 7071-7086, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0781.1

Kawatani, Y., and K. Hamilton, 2013: Weakened stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation driven by increased tropical mean upwelling. Nature, 497, doi: 10.1038/nature12140, See also corrigendum.

Kidston J., A.A. Scaife, S.C. Hardiman, D.M. Mitchell, N. Butchart, M.P. Baldwin and L.J. Gray, 2015: Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather. Nat. Geosci., 8, 433-450

Kim, J., K.M. Grise, and S.-W. Son, 2013: Thermal characteristics of the cold-point tropopause region in CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 8827–8841, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50649.

Kim, J., S. Son, E.P. Gerber, and H. Park, 2017: Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warming in Climate Models: Accounting for Biases in Model Climatologies. J. Climate, 30, 5529–5546, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0465.1

Lee, Y. and R.X. Black, 2015: The Structure and Dynamics of the Stratospheric Northern Annular Mode in CMIP5 Simulations. J. Climate, 28, 86–107, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00570.1

Lott, F., and Coauthors, 2014: Kelvin and Rossby-gravity wave packets in the lower stratosphere of some high-top CMIP5 models. JGR Atmos., 119, 2156–2173, doi: 10.1002/2013JD020797

Manzini, E., and Coauthors, 2014: Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling. JGR Atmos., 119, doi: 10.1002/2013JD021403

Neely, R.R., D.R. Marsh, K.L. Smith, S.M. Davis and L.M. Polvani, 2014: Biases in Southern Hemisphere climate trends induced by coarsely specifying the temporal resolution of stratospheric ozone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/ 2014GL061627

Reichler, T., J. Kim, E. Manzini, and J. Kröger, 2012: A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability. Nature Geoscience, Letters, 5, 783-787. DOI: 10.1038/ ngeo1586.

Scaife, A.A., and Coauthors, 2014: Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on sea- sonal to decadal timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1752–1758, doi:10.1002/ 2013GL059160.

Seviour W.J.M., S.C. Hardiman, L.J. Gray, N. Butchart, C. MacLachlan and A.A. Scaife, 2014: Skillful seasonal prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic ozone. J. Clim., 27, 7462-7474, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1.

Seviour, W. J. M., L. J. Gray, and D. M. Mitchell, 2016: Stratospheric polar vortex splits and displacements in the high-top CMIP5 climate models, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 1400–1413, doi:10.1002/2015JD024178.

Shaw, T.A., and Coauthors, 2016: Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change. Nature Geosc., doi:10.1038/NGEO2783.

Shaw, T.A., J. Perlwitz, O. Weiner, 2014: Troposphere-stratosphere coupling: Links to North Atlantic weather and climate, including their representation in CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1002/2013JD021191

Simpson, I.R., T.A. Shaw, and R. Seager, 2014: A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2489-2514, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0325.1

Taguchi, M., 2017: A study of different frequencies of major stratospheric sudden warmings in CMIP5 historical simulations, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 5144-5156, doi:10.1002/2016JD025826.

Tompkins, A., and Coauthors, 2017: The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 98 (11): 2293–2301.

Wei, K., Z. Cai, W. Chen, and L. Xu, 2016: The effect of a well-resolved stratosphere on East Asian winter climate, Climate Dynamics,

Wilcox, L.J., and A.J. Charlton-Perez, 2013: Final warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex in high- and low-top CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2535–2546, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50254.


SPARC activity updates:

SPARC Newsletter 48, 2017, p. 26: The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms SPARC/DynVar and S-RIP Workshop, by E. Gerber et al.

SPARC Newsletter 46, 2016, p. 31: Report on SPARC storm tracks workshop, by T. A. Shaw and M. Baldwin.

SPARC Newsletter 41, 2013, p. 40: Report on the 3rd SPARC DynVar Workshop on Modelling the Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System, by E. Manzini et al.

SPARC Newsletter 36, 2011, p. 19: Report on the SPARC DynVar Workshop 2 on Modelling the Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System, by E. Manzini et al.

SPARC Newsletter 32, 2009, p. 13: SPARC Dynamics and Variability Project (DynVar): Plans and Status, by P.J. Kushner et al.

SPARC Newsletter 29, 2007, p. 9: The SPARC DynVar Project: A SPARC Project on the Dynamics and Variability of the Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere System, by P.J. Kushner et al.


Website for further information

www.sparcdynvar.org (DynVarMIP)